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Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.
The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.
What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.
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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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Personally, the journey at Calvinayre.com has been about the great people I’ve been lucky enough to work with. It’s a rare thing in the world to be able to find great people to work with. I want to thank two former bosses who encouraged me to chase my passions in this industry. AD, a former Calvinayre.com editor and T2 who took a chance on me as well.
I don’t know what I’m going to be doing next, but I know I want to stay in the casino industry. It’s an industry I always come back to and love.
Reach out anytime for a laugh, talk shop or share ideas. I can be found on Linkedin, Twitter, Facebook and Muckrack.
