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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.
His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
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He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.
“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.
Durigan did not indicate that the government would prohibit the activity.