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“Litigation may eventually clarify the law, but this is ultimately a question of congressional intent. Congress should not wait while this nationwide expansion of gambling continues,” the letter said. “It should use crypto legislation to reaffirm a simple principle: sports betting falls outside the CFTC’s remit and cannot be offered through prediction market platforms.”

Following the vote, IGA Chairman David Bean said in a statement that the Senate “did the right thing” by not advancing the bill. The Clarity Act “could have expanded CFTC commodities authority” without clear protections, Bean said, but he cautioned that “it is not the end of this fight”.

The AGA declined to comment Thursday, and directed iGB to the June letter.

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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

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Large and demanding portfolios were highlighted as a key challenge, with 64% of managers overseeing 100 or more VIPs, while one in five managed more than 500. 

The report highlighted the intense workload by estimating that a manager looking after 250 players would have roughly 100 seconds to commit to each player each day if their time was split equally. Data quality and fragmentation were also issues. 

Grygorenko emphasised that prioritisation was the key to adapting these portfolio sizes.