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“If we just sold the data to Kalshi in order to list the markets but no one was coming in and placing liquidity, there’s no point in them listing the markets,” Monk said. “We also need to supply the data to the market makers to inform their models.”

Catalist initially received a list of fewer than 10 potential market makers from Kalshi. It has since completed agreements with close to 20 and is engaging with approximately another 20.

That growth reflects the expanding number and variety of sports contracts. ITF tennis is particularly dependent on official data because its more than 60,000 annual matches are not generally televised. Unofficially monitoring a tour moving between locations such as Bogotá and Bali would be difficult, Monk noted.

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In the six months to June, Entain’s online net gaming revenue rose 7% in constant currency. Revenue in Britain and Ireland increased 13%, while the company maintained its full-year guidance for online net gaming revenue growth of 5% to 7%. So why is its stock price still so under pressure?

One answer is that the industry is no longer being valued primarily on the promise of endless growth. The market instead wants to see profit, cash generation and manageable regulation maintained across all facets of a listed business. Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, says the longer-term decline in gambling stocks runs much deeper than just changes to earnings forecasts.

“The industry share price declines have been much more severe than the cut to earnings projections which means that, while there may be some weakening in some companies’ fundamental growth drivers, the valuations that investors are putting on them have been the main driver of share price declines – although weaker fundamentals lead to lower valuations, so the reality is that they’re completely intertwined.”

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Sportsbook operators have an inherent advantage over prediction markets in that the former can offer significantly larger sign-up and retention bonuses and gaming companies are leaning into those expenditures this football season.

Promotional spending is nice and has proven to be an effective customer acquisition tool, but both sportsbooks and prediction markets would do well to emphasize bespoke experiences for clients because they’re looking for customization.

“Twelve percent of respondents have switched platforms because another offered personalization aligned with their interests, while 9% said recommendations based on their interests would make them more likely to try a prediction market,” concludes Fullstory.