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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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“We’re calling on the Supreme Court to resolve this issue and recognise that Congress did not silently make the sports-betting industry immune from state law,” Davenport said in a statement.
New Jersey stakeholders are no stranger to the importance of a Supreme Court review. The state lost every case in the lead-up to the PASPA repeal, except for the one that mattered most in the end, and it could be the same in this matter as Kalshi has prevailed thus far in state court and the Third Circuit. Davenport’s petition cites that fateful PASPA ruling in its introduction.
“Just eight years ago, this court reiterated that ‘each state is free to act on its own’ in regulating sports betting,” the petition says. “But Kalshi has a different view. Kalshi bills itself as ‘the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states’ and believes it can offer that legal sports betting without following the sports-gambling laws of any of those 50 states.”
How to play Pirate Gold Deluxe
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