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On the surface, Week 1 appeared exceptionally bettor-friendly, as Casino.org reported.
According to LSR, NFL teams combined for 791 points—tying 2012 for the highest opening-week total ever—while setting Week 1 records for total touchdowns (93), offensive touchdowns (90), and rushing touchdowns (37). Favorites went 12-4 straight up, while the Over hit in nine of 16 games (9-6-1).
At Caesars Sportsbook, seven of eight early afternoon favorites won outright, and six games went Over the total—many hitting the mark by halftime.
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Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.
The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
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He warns governments and policymakers often misunderstand the primary causes of problem gambling, and therefore enforce measures that squeeze licensed operators and drive the illegal market.
For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.
Kesitilwe says the AiA also wants to develop a clearer picture of problem gambling across Africa and use that evidence to support engagement with governments and policymakers.