Good Luck 40

What is Good Luck 40?

Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.

That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

How to play Good Luck 40

Union deals have been a pressing topic for casino operators in recent years. Workers have pressed for increased benefits and job security provisions in the wake of macroeconomic uncertainty and the advent of potentially disruptive technologies like AI.

All nine of Atlantic City’s casinos agreed to new labour deals this summer without a strike, although its union opted for just one-year deals instead of the typical length of three or more years. This was in response to increased uncertainty related to looming competition from both New York City casinos and New Jersey’s own online gaming industry.

In Las Vegas, the Culinary Union has unionised the entire Las Vegas Strip and secured historic wage increases during the last round of negotiations. Those deals are about halfway done now, and Culinary is no stranger to strikes, having used them as leverage to secure new deals in the run-up to the inaugural Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix in 2023 and and Super Bowl the following February.

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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.

Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.