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What is Phantasmic Fortunes?
The failure to secure passage of the bill is a stinging defeat for both crypto-connected prediction operators and the CFTC, which has fully embraced the advance of digital assets under Chairman Michael Selig. Interest groups and political action committees had spent countless hours and millions of dollars lobbying for the legislation.
In statements, op-eds and media interviews since his appointment, Selig had pounded the table for a federal crypto framework. As the IGA’s Bean alluded to, the Clarity Act would have given the agency a number of new duties and authorities related to the new assets at a time when the commission’s existing workload has been cause for concern. There are typically five sitting CFTC commissioners at any given time, but Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner with no other nominations submitted.
Selig recently hosted a meeting of the CFTC’s so-called Innovation Advisory Committee, which featured extensive discussion about crypto from leading CEOs. The committee’s charter says members pledge to “provide advice and recommendations” on several topics, including crypto assets and blockchain technology.
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One interesting nugget surrounds weekend figures at Kalshi, where volume on Sunday only surpassed prior daily activity by $34 million, BofA data shows. Typically, Sunday volume for the quarter dwarfs that of College Football Saturdays due to the voracious demand for NFL offerings. BofA analyst Shaun Kelley attributes the irregularity to the possibility that Kalshi is “over indexing” on college sports.
Kelley also cited improvements at Robinhood as a possible factor for the regression at Kalshi. Just before the NFL season, Robinhood took a minority stake in Crypto.com and struck a deal to begin routing NFL contracts to OG.com, the site’s regulated prediction market platform.
A 40% weekly increase at Crypto.com combined with the attrition at Kalshi may reflect the enormity of the Robinhood deal, according to Kelley.
What is Phantasmic Fortunes?
While this initially seemed terrifying, I quickly discovered that this outsider status was a gift. It has allowed me to view the industry through fresh eyes. I do not have any preconceptions about companies or products. This has become my superpower, allowing me to analyse the industry without bias and, hopefully, help shape its future.
iGaming was not the industry I set out to work in. Before 2021, I worked in finance and business – agro companies, management consultancy and investment funds, none of which were remotely linked to the industry.
In 2021, I joined an investment fund focused on startups harnessing AI and machine learning. In the process, I had a chance encounter with an iGaming investor. This sparked a conversation that would change the course of my career. He pointed out that iGaming was dramatically underutilising its data potential. There was an opportunity here, and once we began exploring it, the thread just kept unravelling.
