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As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

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In an interview with Guilherme Amado’s column in Amado Mundo, Durigan said the government of Brazil and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had fulfilled what was defined in the law that established sports betting.

“The legislation mandated the regulation of the sector, which did not happen in the previous administration,” he explained. “We came into government with the sector operating for almost five years.

“We saw that they had entered football and advertising, and they have political and economic weight. Understanding that Congress would not prohibit the activity, we decided to put the brakes on and establish the rules.

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“Markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants,” Buffett wrote, noting that extreme volatility makes identifying sound, long-term investments vastly more difficult.

“One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street–to use the term in its figurative sense–would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed–not by everyone but always by someone,” Buffett warned.

Buffett was not always entirely anti-gambling. Before commercial sports betting expanded across the United States, he regularly offered $1 million annually to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who submitted a perfect NCAA March Madness men’s basketball bracket.